The political landscape in Northern Nigeria has become increasingly polarized over the potential re-election of President Bola Tinubu in 2027. While core northern leaders appear determined to unseat him, minority groups within the region have expressed their support for his administration, citing improved political representation and infrastructural development.
Findings by Sunday PUNCH indicate that the once-united North is now split along ethnic and religious lines. Core northerners have accused Tinubu of neglecting the region, particularly on security and economic policies. In contrast, the Middle Belt, Southern Kaduna residents, indigenous Hausa Christians, and parts of Plateau State argue that they have benefitted under his leadership.
Political Stakeholders Take Sides
Prominent political voices within the North have openly disagreed over Tinubu’s leadership. Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, and human rights activist, Senator Shehu Sani, have been at the forefront of social media debates over the President’s performance, particularly regarding security in the North.
The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), a key political and cultural group, has distanced itself from endorsing Tinubu’s re-election. Its Secretary General, Murtala Aliyu, stated that the forum remains nonpartisan and will only provide guidance on key issues without backing any particular candidate. This stance came in response to a call by the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Abdullahi Ganduje, who urged northern politicians to abandon their presidential ambitions in favor of Tinubu’s second term.
Meanwhile, the League of Northern Democrats, which includes members of the APC, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), has vowed to support an alternative candidate in 2027. The group’s spokesperson, Ladan Salihu, cited economic hardship, poverty, and insecurity as reasons why Tinubu does not deserve re-election.
Similarly, the National Coalition of Northern Groups has warned that the North would not vote for Tinubu if economic conditions fail to improve. Jamilu Charanchi, the coalition’s president, emphasized that the North, which holds a majority of votes, would determine the next leader based on performance.
Growing Opposition and Calls for a Northern Candidate
Former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, has hinted at a growing consensus in the North to prevent Tinubu’s re-election. Lawal, who previously opposed Nasir El-Rufai, now aligns with him on this issue, stating that Tinubu’s policies have exacerbated poverty and hardship in the region.
El-Rufai has also criticized the APC’s internal operations, lamenting the absence of democratic structures within the party. He recently shared a post warning that Tinubu could suffer the same fate as former President Goodluck Jonathan if he continues to alienate northern interests.
Northern Minorities Back Tinubu
Despite the opposition from core northern figures, minority groups within the region have pledged support for Tinubu’s administration. The Middle Belt Forum (MBF) has argued that the region has seen more political appointments and infrastructural development under Tinubu than under former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Notable appointments from the Middle Belt include Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume (Benue State), and Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development, Prof. Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda (Plateau State).
Similarly, indigenous Hausa Christians and Southern Kaduna groups have commended Tinubu for his inclusive governance, particularly in security and appointments. The Southern Kaduna People’s Union (SOKAPU) highlighted the appointment of Gen. Christopher Musa as Chief of Defence Staff and the establishment of a Federal University in Kachia as key achievements.
Plateau State indigenes, under the Plateau Initiative for the Development and Advancement of the Natives, have also expressed their support, citing the President’s efforts to distribute development projects across Nigeria.
The Road to 2027
With the North deeply divided over Tinubu’s leadership, the 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be a critical contest. While core northern elites are mobilizing to challenge his re-election, northern minorities remain confident in his ability to lead.
Ultimately, Tinubu’s fate will depend on his administration’s ability to address economic hardship, security concerns, and governance issues before the next election cycle.