When the Dangote Refinery commenced operations, a foreign-sponsored civil society organization, Dialogue Earth, based in Nairobi reportedly enlisted Nigeria’s investigative journalist David Hundeyin to criticize the refinery’s scale in light of Nigeria’s climate goals. Interestingly, Hundeyin, a staunch critic of Africa’s involvement in global climate discourse, rejected the narrative. He argued that Africa, burdened by severe energy poverty, cannot afford to transition to clean energy when it has yet to fully benefit from fossil fuels.
The Dangote Refinery, with a production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), surpasses all refineries in Europe and the Middle East. The second-largest, the Shell-owned refinery in Rotterdam, Netherlands, produces 450,000 bpd. This difference highlights the economic advantage of scale, higher output allows for competitive pricing, making Dangote Refinery a formidable player in global markets.
However, the refinery has faced more challenges from within Nigeria than from foreign competitors. Its potential to disrupt the domestic oil cabal, whose wealth has historically been tied to illegal proceeds and subsidy scams, has made it a target. For decades, a corrupt subsidy regime enriched a few, and even with subsidy removal, these interests still rely on importing refined products from foreign refineries in which they have significant stakes. Nigerian leaders have consistently sabotaged investments that could benefit the country and its citizens, often prioritizing personal interests over national progress.
The Dangote Refinery represents a historic milestone: the first time in six centuries that an African company could potentially outcompete European counterparts. This success greatly points to the transformative impact of secondary economic activities, which could elevate Nigeria’s GDP to $4–5 trillion at a nominal level. Unfortunately, poor leadership has stunted such potential. Yet, against all odds, individual efforts like Aliko Dangote’s have begun to yield results.
Ironically, even government agencies have opposed the refinery. A regulatory body accused the refinery of creating a monopoly, despite the government itself violating the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which prioritizes domestic refining over crude oil exports. The outcry against the refinery’s dominance is tied to vested interests in crude oil sales, much of which had already been mortgaged under the Buhari administration.
Africa’s poverty has long been a boon for Europe. A continent of 1.2 billion people with less than 4% of global trade is now being discouraged from harnessing its hydrocarbon resources under the guise of climate protection. Meanwhile, the U.S. military alone emits more carbon than the entire African continent. As Western nations transition to post-industrial economies, their supply chains remain in Asia, where 80% of energy needs are met by fossil fuels, primarily coal and natural gas.
Nigeria, with some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, is uniquely positioned to leverage this cheap, reliable energy source that powered industrialized Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Yet, global narratives and domestic corruption have hindered the nation from fully realizing its potential. The Dangote Refinery offers a glimpse of what could be achieved if Africa prioritized its own interests and harnessed its vast resources for development.