China’s population has declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, underlining the growing economic and social challenges arising from an aging population and declining birth rates. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a population decrease of 1.39 million, bringing the total to 1.408 billion, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023.
Despite a slight increase in births, rising to 9.54 million in 2024 from 9.02 million in 2023, deaths outpaced births, with 10.93 million recorded. Experts attribute this trend to entrenched structural issues that show no sign of immediate resolution.
“This population decline is not just a temporary phase but a reflection of deep structural challenges,” said Yun Zhou, a sociology professor at the University of Michigan. “Without significant reforms, including strengthening the social safety net and addressing gender discrimination, reversing this trend will remain elusive.”
Declining Workforce and Economic Strain
The continued population decline has raised alarms about the future of the world’s second-largest economy. A shrinking workforce, coupled with rising costs for elderly care and retirement benefits, is expected to strain local governments already grappling with high debt levels.
In 2024, China’s birth rate rose slightly to 6.77 births per 1,000 people from 6.39 in 2023, marking a modest rebound attributed to a 12.4% increase in marriages following delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, demographers warn that the number of marriages is expected to decline in 2025, likely dampening birth rates further.
Urbanization and Gender Disparities
China’s rapid urbanization and the legacy of its one-child policy (1980–2015) have contributed significantly to its demographic challenges. The high cost of urban living, job insecurity, soaring education expenses, and pervasive gender discrimination are deterring many couples from starting families.
The urban population increased by 10.83 million in 2024, reaching 943.3 million, while rural residents declined to 464.78 million. The demographic shift underscores the challenges of balancing urban growth with rural decline.
Aging Population and Pension Crisis
China’s aging population continues to grow rapidly. By the end of 2024, 22% of the population—310.31 million people—were aged 60 or older, up from 296.97 million in 2023. Projections show that the retirement-age population could reach 400 million by 2035, further straining the country’s pension system. The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences has warned that the system could be depleted by 2035 without significant reforms.
Government Interventions
In response to these challenges, authorities introduced measures in 2024, such as promoting positive attitudes toward marriage and family among university students and encouraging local governments to provide better childbearing support. However, with the number of women of reproductive age (15-49) expected to fall by over two-thirds by 2100, experts remain skeptical about the long-term impact of these initiatives.
As China grapples with the implications of its demographic decline, transformative action is urgently needed. Without reforms to address its aging population, declining workforce, and socio-economic disparities, the country risks long-term economic stagnation and a diminished global standing.